Now That Sanders Crushed the Nevada Latino Vote, What About Future States?

By:
Feb 24, 2020
3:45 PM

Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders visits El Paso for a rally on Saturday, February 22, at the Abraham Chávez Theatre in El Paso, Texas.

On Saturday, Democratic presidential Bernie Sanders dominated the Latino vote in the Nevada Caucus. Entrance polls showed that the Vermont senator won 54% of Latino support, with Joe Biden getting only 14% (apparently, that last-minute Latino Victory Project endorsement didn’t materialize in actual voting support). In addition, an analysis by UCLA’S Latino Policy & Politics Initiative estimated that Sanders got over 70% of the Latino vote.

These are historic numbers, especially in a Democratic race with so many candidates. Much has been written about Sanders’ Latino success in Nevada, and it aligns to how the campaign’s micro-targeting of Latinos in Iowa and New Hampshire were not just early anomalies. In fact, it’s safe to say that Sanders is owning the 2020 Latino vote, and now it’s just a question of how much support he will continue to get in South Carolina (yes, South Carolina) and the March 3 Super Tuesday states.

South Carolina

We will let our founder/publisher share what to look for when it comes to Latino voters in South Carolina:

So expect a Iowa/NH-like micro-targeting of Latino voters in South Carolina that could give Sanders a boost?

Very likely.

Super Tuesday

On Tuesday March 3 (only three days after South Carolina), there will be 16 Democratic contests across 14 states, one territory (American Samoa) and Democrats who live abroad. The states are Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia. In total, there will be 1,344 delegates in play. That accounts for about 33% of the total delegates in this cycle.

According to Pew, “A majority (56%) [of Latinos] live in states that will hold Democratic primaries and caucuses on or before Super Tuesday (March 3), up from 29% in 2016.”

What does this mean for Sanders and Latino voters? There are plenty of opportunities for Sanders to replicate his Nevada performance and pick up a big share of delegates.

Here are the two obvious examples (all data sourced to Pew):

California (Semi-Closed Primary): There are 7,885,000 eligible Latino voters in this state, accounting for 30.5% of the state’s total eligible voting population. The state’s semi-closed primary is only for registered Democrats and voters who are unaffiliated. Early voting has already been happening.

Texas (Open Primary): The Lone Star State has 5,628,000 eligible Latino voters. That represents 30.4% of the state’s total eligible voting population.

Granted, we aren’t comparing California to Texas, but in the context of Democratic primaries, both these states have plenty of Latino voters for Sanders. In Texas, for example, there has been a concerted effort to bring in new (and young) Latino voters into the primary process.

There is no indication so far in California that Sanders is not the top choice with Latinos, so don’t be surprised if Sanders can replicate Nevada in both of these primary states. Remember, this isn’t the general election, so in a state like Texas, for example, the Sanders campaign can focus on Latino blue areas in Texas, just like it did in Nevada. There’s a reason why Sanders did rallies so far this week in San Antonio, El Paso, Houston and Austin.

After the Big Two Latino States, there are plenty of opportunities for Sanders to employ a micro-targeting strategy in these states, like an Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina:

Colorado (Semi-Closed Primary): This state has 659,000 eligible Latino voters, making up 15.9% of the state’s eligible voters. That’s a pretty significant share, enough to move an election. The state’s semi-closed primary is for registered Democrats and voters who are unaffiliated.

Utah (Open Primary): Yes, Utah. This state has 188,000 eligible Latino voters, which results in 9% of of the state’s eligible voters. As Pew notes, in Utah’s 4th congressional district (Salt Lake City), 10.6% of the eligible voter population is Latino (55,000 out of a total 518,000).

Virginia (Open Primary): This state has 341,000 eligible Latino voters, making up 5.5% of the state’s eligible voters. However, several congressional districts in Virginia have a good batch of eligible Latino voters in the DC suburbs: VA 1 (8% of eligible voters), VA 8 (10.8% of eligible voters), and VA 11 (12% of eligible voters).

Oklahoma (Semi-Closed Primary): There are 177,000 eligible Latino voters in this state, which will hold a semi-closed primary only for registered Democrats and voters who are unaffiliated. That comes out to 6.2% of the state’s eligible voters. Those share percentages change in some congressional districts: OK 5 (8.5%), which represents Oklahoma City, and OK 4 (6.8%), which is south of Oklahoma City.

North Carolina (Semi-Closed Primary): This state has 388,000 eligible Latino voters, accounting for 4.4% of the state’s eligible voters. (Pew said that “data for North Carolina’s 2019 redrawn congressional districts not available.”) The state’s a semi-closed primary is only for registered Democrats and voters who are unaffiliated.

Arkansas (Open Primary): This state has 83,000 eligible Latino voters, accounting for 3.8% of the state’s eligible voters. However, the state’s 3rd congressional district, which represents Fayetteville, accounts for more than half the state’s Latino eligible voters (46,000) and 8% of AR 3.

Tennessee (Open Primary): There are 125,000 eligible Latino voters in this state. That’s 2.5% of the state’s eligible voters. The state’s three western districts have eligible Latino voter shares greater than 3%.

Alabama (Open Primary): This state has 80,000 eligible Latino voters, for a share of 2.2%. The congressional district with the greatest share of eligible Latino voters is AL 5 (Huntsville), with 2.7%.

Massachusetts (a semi-closed primary of registered Democrats and voters who are unaffiliated) has 452,000 eligible Latino voters for 9% of the state’s eligible voters, but Elizabeth Warren is still in the race and the Massachusetts senator should do well with Latino voters, given her positions on issues like Puerto Rico. Minnesota (open primary) has 127,000 eligible Latino voters for 3.1% of the state’s eligible voters, but this is Amy Klobuchar’s home state.

Vermont (open primary) has 8,000 eligible Latino voters, but this is Sanders’ home state.

As for Maine (a closed primary)? That state has 16,000 eligible Latino voters, a smaller share of Latino voters (1.4%) than even New Hampshire.

We’ll do the analysis of the next series of states after Super Tuesday.