Final Week of 9-Week NALEO Tracking Poll of Latino Voters: Biden 69%, Trump 26%

By:
Nov 2, 2020
8:42 PM

Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden speaks during the fourth day of the Democratic National Convention, Thursday, Aug. 20, 2020, at the Chase Center in Wilmington, Del. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

The last week of the nine-week 2020 Latino Weekly Tracking Poll from the NALEO Educational Fund said that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has 69% of Latino voter support, with President Trump getting 26% support.

The poll’s final week was conducted by Latino Decisions from October 26-30. Taking into account responses from 3,700 unique Latino voters for the entire nine weeks, the poll’s final margin of error is +/- 4.9 percent.

The latest 69%-26% breakdown favoring Biden is similar to 2016 exit polling that showed Hillary Clinton with 66 percent of support to Trump’s 28 percent. In 2012, Barack Obama gained 71 percent of the Latino vote to Mitt Romney’s 27 percent.

Besides the national Latino voter numbers, the NALEO poll also included breakdowns of support by some states, including Florida (Biden 57%, Trump 35%), Texas (Biden 67%, Trump 23%), and Arizona (Biden 70%, Trump 25%). 

Biden also saw advantages with Latina women voters (73%-22%), voters age 18-34 (71%-25%) and even voters age 50+ (74%-20%). Trump has 31% support with Latino men (all ages) to Biden’s 64% and also 33% support with voters age 35-49 to Biden’s 62%.

In addition, NALEO noted that 48% of respondents said they already voted.

One Monday NALEO tweetd the following about early voting in the Latino community:

In August, NALEO predicted that at least 14.6 million Latinos would vote this election cycle. On Monday night, it shared a breakdown of how dramatic the Latino early voting share had increased from 2016 to 2020, stating that the current 2020 prediction from August will likely be shattered:

Here is what NALEO CEO Arturo Vargas said in a statement about the early voting numbers:

“Like the population overall, Latinos are turning out to vote early in record numbers, with more than 8.2 million Latinos already having cast their ballots nationally.
 
“Although we are not ideologically monolithic, we have always been deeply invested in the future of our communities and that of the country as a whole. While it is hopeful to see so much participation at this point, that enthusiasm can not let up. Eligible Latinos who have yet to cast their ballots should still make a plan to vote so that their voices will be heard by the time the polls close [Tuesday].
 
“This election, with all its unprecedented dynamics, seems to have sparked a distinct urgency to participate in our democracy. Latino voters, particularly young Latinos, are proving that to be true. Our data look at three days out from Election Day—and we already saw more than twice as many Latino voters having cast their ballots than they did at the same time in 2016. Currently, 18-29-year-old Latino voters are showing up and serving as a driving force of this increased participation, accounting for over 20 percent of our community’s early vote share. This figure close to doubled what it was at this point four years ago.
 
“We have known 2020 was going to be pivotal for our community—this is our moment. Given these circumstances, we fully expect Latino voter participation to surpass our initial projections of 14.6 million voters. The energy and enthusiasm we are seeing represent a momentum that we must keep up through tomorrow so that no matter the outcome, we will once again renew our place in America as one of the most engaged electorates.”

In a release about the final week of the tracking poll, NALEO shared additional findings in a release:

State-Level Data (Aggregated Over Nine Weeks)

  • Survey respondents who have been contacted in lead up to Election 2020:
    • Florida (58%)
      • By Democrats (57%)
      • By Republicans (46%)
      • By a non-partisan or civic organization (27%)
    • Texas (52%)
      • By Democrats (61%)
      • By Republicans (35%)
      • By a non-partisan or civic organization (25%)
    • California (48%)
      • By Democrats (62%)
      • By Republicans (30%)
      • By a non-partisan or civic organization (26%)
  • On a motivation and enthusiasm scale of 0-10, with 10 being the most motivated and enthusiastic about voting in the 2020 Election, survey respondents indicated the following average motivation and enthusiasm levels by state:
    • Florida: 8.37
    • Texas: 7.92
    • California: 8.07

Candidate and Party Favorability

  • Vice President Joe Biden’s 71% in favorability (high point in the survey) puts him at a 42-point advantage in that category over President Donald Trump
  • Senator Kamala Harris’s 59% in favorability (high point in the survey) puts her at a 30-point advantage in favorability over Vice President Mike Pence
  • Based on aggregated data over the nine weeks of the survey, Latino registered voters who identified as Republican (82%), Cuban (37%), male (28%), third-generation (28%), aged 50+ (26%), or college-educated (27%) were the most likely to state they were planning to vote (or likely to vote) for President Donald Trump.
  • Based on aggregated data over the nine weeks of the survey, Latino registered voters who identified as Democrats (92%), second-generation (71%), female (69%), aged 18-34 (69%), Spanish-language media consumers (69%), or Mexican-American (68%) were the most likely to report they were planning to vote (or likely to vote) for Vice President Joe Biden.

Voter Enthusiasm, Disinformation, and Election Preferences

  • Nearly half (48%, up 14 points from last week) of respondents say they have already voted
  • Alongside those who have already voted, 41% of survey respondents still say they are almost certain they will vote
  • 88% of respondents are either just as or more enthusiastic about voting in 2020 than they were in 2016, with 70% saying they are more enthusiastic about 2020 (high point in the survey)
  • Survey respondents indicate that of remaining Latino voters, 65% prefer to vote in person
  • Among the respondents who plan to vote in person, 76% plan to vote on Election Day
  • A third of survey respondents (33%) say they do not trust that mail-in-ballots will be correctly delivered back to county elections departments
  • 75% of survey respondents think ballot drop boxes are a good idea
  • 75% of survey respondents are concerned that family or friends are being sent digitally altered videos meant to mislead the public about the presidential candidates
  • Although 95% of respondents believe they will personally have the opportunity to freely and fairly vote in the election, 66% are concerned that if Vice President Joe Biden wins, there will not be an orderly transition of power

Voter Engagement

  • 90% (high point in the survey) of respondents say they are following the news of the presidential election
  • 78% of survey respondents said they discussed politics with family and friends
  • 53% of respondents said they have discussed a candidate or political issue on social media
  • 75% of survey respondents say they encouraged family or friends to register to vote
  • 64% (high point in the survey) of respondents have been contacted by a representative from a political party, campaign, or other organization in the lead up to Election 2020 (highest point in 2016 was 46%)
  • Of those who said they had been contacted this election cycle, nearly two-thirds (66%, and high point in the survey) indicate someone from the Democratic Party contacted them, 36% indicate someone from the Republican Party, and 28% indicate someone from a non-partisan or civic organization
  • 63% (high point in the survey) of survey respondents say Vice President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party are doing a good job at reaching out to Latinos, with 24% saying the same thing about President Donald Trump and the Republican Party

Issues

  • COVID-19, healthcare, racism and discrimination, and jobs remain the most important issues among survey respondents, with the following breakdown:
    • Responding to COVID-19: 55% (high point in the survey)
    • Lowering healthcare costs: 28%
    • Jobs and wages: 27%
    • Racism and discrimination: 24%
    • Immigration reform and protecting immigrant rights: 22%
  • Vice President Joe Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump with respect to whom respondents trust in handling the following issues:
    • Access to affordable healthcare
      • Biden (68%)
      • Trump (19%)
    • Improving the economy
      • Biden (58%)
      • Trump (30%)
    • Immigration reform
      • Biden (62%)
      • Trump (23%)
    • Bringing the country together
      • Biden (66%)
      • Trump (19%)
  • 70% disapprove of the way President Trump is handling the COVID-19 response

COVID-19 Challenges

  • In addition to the 37% of this week’s survey respondents who say they know someone who has died from COVID-19, 29% say they have had trouble getting access to food, medicine, or basic household needs, as a result of the pandemic, and 46% say they had to use savings or retirement money to pay for expenses
  • 29% of survey respondents have lost their job as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic
  • 16% (high point in the survey) of respondents have been sick with COVID-19

The last week of the toplines are here:

Editor’s Note: Mattt Barreto is a co-founder of Latino Decisions and was hired by the Biden campaign “to direct polling and focus group research for Latino voters,” as noted by his website. He has gone on record with Latino Rebels to say that he is not working on or involved with any other Latino Decisions work during his time with the Biden campaign.