Democratic presidential candidates, Sen. Bernie Sanders, left, and former Vice President Joe Biden gesture during a Democratic presidential primary debate Wednesday, February 19, 2020, in Las Vegas, hosted by NBC News and MSNBC. (AP Photo/John Locher)
On Wednesday morning and hours after Joe Biden had another strong night in the Democratic primaries, a new Telemundo poll of likely Latino voters in Arizona and Florida said that Bernie Sanders holds a 47%-40% lead over Biden in Arizona, while Biden leads Sanders by 48%-37% in Florida, a media release about the poll stated.
Both these states will hold primaries on March 17. According to Pew, 23.6% of Arizona’s eligible voter population is Latino (1,188,000 out of 5,042,000). In Florida, 20.5% of the state’s eligible voter population is Latino (3,143,000 out of a total 15,342,000).
The “Telemundo Poll: State of The Latino Vote in Arizona and Florida” also shared results about how each Democratic candidate would do in a general election against President Trump. The latest Telemundo Arizona poll was conducted from March 4-6. The Florida poll was conducted from March 4-7. Super Tuesday was on March 3, and on March 10, six other states held primaries (Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Iowa and Washington). Biden won four of those states, with Sanders taking North Dakota. As of this posting, Washington is still too close of a race to call.
“When matched against Republican Donald Trump in the general election, Biden has a commanding advantage over the president in both states. Biden leads Trump 58%-38% in Florida and 72%-20% in Arizona. Sanders runs well against Trump among likely Latino voters in Arizona (68%-22%), but trails Trump by 45%-44% in Florida,” the Telemundo media release said.
In a Florida matchup against Trump, the Telemundo poll noted that Biden won Latinos across all major subcategories: men (54%), women (62%), people younger than 50 years (61%), individuals older than 50 years (55%), Puerto Ricans (81%), and Independents (59%).
“Cubans in Florida are the only demographic group to support Trump, preferring the president by 70%-27% over Biden, and a wider 74%-19% over Sanders,” the Telemundo release said.
The Telemundo poll also said that “Sanders’ self-description as a democratic socialist has taken a toll on his popularity with 70% of likely Latino voters in Florida saying they would not vote for a candidate who describes him/herself as a ‘socialist.'”
Some of the Arizona results “found that nearly 50 percent (46%) of respondents want their vote to change the direction of the country by voting Trump out of office. In addition, 52% of likely Latino voters say they feel that Latinos in Arizona are being widely persecuted or discriminated against,” Telemundo noted.
Specific Poll Questions and Results
If the Arizona Democratic primary election were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote?
| STATE | MEN | WOMEN | <50 Years | 50+ Years | |
| Joe Biden | 40% | 40% | 40% | 35% | 48% |
| Bernie Sanders | 47% | 50% | 45% | 56% | 35% |
If the Florida Democratic primary election were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote?
| STATE | MEN | WOMEN | <50 Years | 50+ Years | |
| Joe Biden | 48% | 43% | 51% | 33% | 63% |
| Bernie Sanders | 40% | 40% | 40% | 35% | 48% |
Arizona Only
If the 2020 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Bernie Sanders, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican?
| SANDERS | TRUMP | UNDECIDED | |
| Statewide | 68% | 23% | 9% |
| Maricopa County | 72% | 22% | 6% |
| Pima County | 71% | 20% | 9% |
| Rural AZ | 57% | 27% | 16% |
| Men | 64% | 26% | 10% |
| Women | 72% | 20% | 8% |
| <50 Years | 73% | 20% | 7% |
| 50+ Years | 61% | 27% | 12% |
| Mexican | 74% | 19% | 7% |
| Other | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Democrat | 89% | 5% | 6% |
| Republican | 12% | 79% | 9% |
| Independent | 63% | 24% | 13% |
If the 2020 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Joe Biden, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican?
| BIDEN | TRUMP | UNDECIDED | |
| Statewide | 72% | 20% | 8% |
| Maricopa County | 80% | 14% | 6% |
| Pima County | 74% | 19% | 7% |
| Rural AZ | 63% | 27% | 10% |
| Men | 68% | 25% | 7% |
| Women | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| <50 Years | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| 50+ Years | 73% | 23% | 4% |
| Mexican | 75% | 19% | 6% |
| Other | 58% | 26% | 16% |
| Democrat | 93% | 5% | 4% |
| Republican | 17% | 70% | 13% |
| Independent | 67% | 21% | 12% |
Florida Only
If the 2020 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Bernie Sanders, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican?
| SANDERS | TRUMP | UNDECIDED | |
| Statewide | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| Central FL | 50% | 38% | 12% |
| Tampa Bay | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Southeast FL | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Men | 41% | 51% | 8% |
| Women | 47% | 39% | 14% |
| <50 Years | 50% | 37% | 13% |
| 50+ Years | 38% | 53% | 9% |
| Cuban | 19% | 74% | 7% |
| Puerto Rican | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| Other | 56% | 31% | 13% |
| Democrat | 74% | 14% | 12% |
| Republican | 6% | 93% | 1% |
| Independent | 40 | 40% | 20% |
If the 2020 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Joe Biden, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican?
| BIDEN | TRUMP | UNDECIDED | |
| Statewide | 58% | 38% | 4% |
| Central FL | 66% | 28% | 6% |
| Tampa Bay | 55% | 39% | 6% |
| Southeast FL | 55% | 42% | 3% |
| Men | 541% | 43% | 3% |
| Women | 62% | 33% | 5% |
| <50 Years | 61% | 35% | 4% |
| 50+ Years | 55% | 41% | 4% |
| Cuban | 27% | 70% | 3% |
| Puerto Rican | 81% | 14% | 5% |
| Other | 75% | 21% | 4% |
| Democrat | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| Republican | 9% | 88% | 3% |
| Independent | 59% | 33% | 8% |
The full Arizona poll is here:
This is the full Florida poll:
According to Telemundo, the survey was administered by bilingual interviewers, and respondents made a choice to take the poll questions in English or Spanish. The respondents were interviewed live, by telephone. This is the language breakdown for each poll:
Arizona: English 68%; Spanish 32%
Florida: English 57%; Spanish 43%
Other parts of the Florida poll focused on issues regarding Puerto Rico, Venezuela and Cuba:
More from @Telemundo Florida Latino poll released today
Puerto Rico and statehood pic.twitter.com/g4qwWMKGdi
— Julio Ricardo Varela (@julito77) March 11, 2020
Sanctions against Cuba and Venezuela pic.twitter.com/gVXLzYkbgc
— Julio Ricardo Varela (@julito77) March 11, 2020
Trump immigration policy for Cuba and Venezuela pic.twitter.com/7hy6UVdPHn
— Julio Ricardo Varela (@julito77) March 11, 2020
Telemundo also provided the following about the two polls’ methodologies:
Telemundo’s Arizona poll was conducted from March 4 to March 6, 2020. A total of 625 registered Latino voters statewide were interviewed live by telephone in Arizona. All indicated they were likely to vote in the 2020 election. Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Arizona voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone-matched numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect Latino voter registration by county. The margin of error for these questions is +/- 4 percentage points. The survey also includes an over-sampling of 400 Latino Democrats, who indicated they were likely to vote in the state’s March 17 Arizona Democratic primary. These voters were only asked questions relative to the primary and not statewide issues/general election. The margin of sample for these results is +/- 5 percentage points.
Telemundo’s Florida poll was conducted from March 4 to March 7, 2020. A total of 625 registered Latino voters statewide were interviewed live by telephone in Florida. All indicated they were likely to vote in the 2020 election. Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Florida voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone-matched numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect Latino voter registration by county. The margin of error for these questions is +/- 4 percentage points. The survey also includes an over-sampling of 400 Latino Democrats, who indicated they were likely to vote in the state’s March 17 Florida Democratic primary. These voters were only asked questions relative to the primary and not statewide issues/general election. The margin of sample for these results is +/- 5 percentage points.
[…] drew major backing from Latino voters in Nevada, Texas and California on Super Tuesday—a Telemundo poll shows 48% of Latinos in Florida backing Biden with 40% supporting Sanders. In Arizona, the rankings […]