What the Latest Univision and Telemundo Polls Are Saying About the 2020 Election

By:
Oct 29, 2020
8:45 AM

Joe Biden (Photo by Gage Skidmore); Donald Trump (Public Domain)

With just five days before Election Day, new polls of Latino voters released by both Univision and Telemundo are sharing insights into an eligible voting bloc that is estimated to be at 32 million.

Univision

On Wednesday, Univision released five polls: the National Latino Voter Poll, the Florida Voter Poll, the Texas Voter Poll, the Arizona Voter Poll and the Pennsylvania Voter Poll.

The Univision poll looked at overall swing states —outside of only Latino voters only— and is reporting the following:

In terms of Latino voters nationally, Univision reported that Biden has a 67%  of Latino voter support compared to 26% for Trump.

In a Wednesday press release about the polls, Univision shared the following:

  • Biden and Trump in a tie within the margin of error in Texas, where Democrats have not won a presidential election since 1976.
  • Biden slightly ahead of Trump in Florida, where the president has 37% support from Hispanics.
  • In Pennsylvania and Arizona, Biden has a five-point advantage over Trump among all registered voters.
  • Biden leads Trump nationally among Hispanic voters by more than 40 points.
  • A high percentage of voters have already voted in four key states: Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania and Arizona.
  • Coronavirus is the biggest concern of voters in four key states: Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania and Arizona.
  • A majority of voters in Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Arizona support mandatory use of face masks.
  • Republican John Cornyn leads Democrat MJ Hegar by just three points in the Texas Senate race.
  • Democrat Mark Kelly has a comfortable lead over Republican Martha McSally in the Senate race in Arizona.
  • Voters in Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania and Arizona believe Biden would handle coronavirus better than Trump.
  • Voters in Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania and Arizona believe that Trump would manage the economy better than Biden.
  • Beyond the candidates, November 3 will be a clearly partisan vote.

The complete set of crosstabs and methodology of all the polls —overseen by Dr. Sergio Garcia-Rios (director of polling for Univision) and administered in collaboration by Latino Decisions and North Star Opinion Research— are below:

Telemundo

On Thursday morning, Telemundo released the results of four swing state polls with significant Latino voter populations: Arizona, Florida, Nevada and Texas.

Here is what those polls revealed, according to a release from Telemundo:

ARIZONA

  • Biden leads Trump among Latino voters 64% to 28%; 6% are undecided, 2% chose other.
  • Biden holds a 71% to 20% lead among women Latino voters in the state and a 57% to 36% lead among male Latino voters.
  • 73% of Latino voters believe it is too soon to re-open schools and business, with 24% saying it is time.
  • In Arizona’s Senate race, 65% of Latino voters support Mark Kelly, the Democratic candidate, versus 28% for Republican Sen. Martha McSally.

FLORIDA

  • Biden leads Trump among Latino voters in Florida 48% to 43%; 7% are undecided, 2% chose other.
  • Among Cuban-American voters, Trump holds a 71% to 23% lead over Biden.
  • Biden holds a 66% to 23%  lead with Puerto Rican voters.
  • 55% of Latino voters say it is too soon to re-open schools and businesses, while 37% say it is time to re-open
  • When Latinos were asked if the U.S. Supreme Court strikes down the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, if they believed they would lose their health insurance, 78% said “no” and 14% responded “yes” while 8% said they were not sure.

NEVADA

  • Biden leads Trump 62% to 29% among Latino voters in Nevada; 7% are undecided, 2% chose other.
  • Biden holds a 65% to 25% lead among Latino female voters and a 58% to 34% advantage among male voters.
  • In Clark County, Biden leads 64% to 27% among Latino voters/
  • 63% of Latino voters in Nevada say it is too soon to re-open schools and businesses; 30% say it is time.
  • When voters were asked if they would likely face eviction when the Nevada rent moratorium ends, 86% said “no” and 9% said “yes.”

TEXAS

  • Biden holds a 58% to 34% lead over Trump among Latino voters in Texas, 7% are undecided, 1% chose other.
  • Biden leads among female Latino voters in Texas 63% to 27% and holds a 52% to 42% advantage among male voters.
  • Among voters under the age of 50, Biden leads 62% to 31%.
  • 66% of Latino voters in Texas say they believe it is too soon to re-open schools and businesses versus 28% who say it is time.
  • When asked how Texas should respond if there is a serious second wave of coronavirus cases, 22% said the state should completely close down businesses and public places, 40% said the state should partially close and 32% said it should keep them open and emphasize the importance of taking precautions. 6% said they were not sure.

All these swing states polls, conducted over the last week, were directed by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy. They have a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. In each state, a total of 500 registered Hispanic voters were interviewed. Those interviewed were randomly selected from phone-matched voter registration lists in each state that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. All of those interviewed indicated they were likely to vote in the November election.

Compared to 2016

Although the final batch of Latino voter polls from 2016 had different methodologies and samples, one conclusion is clear: Biden’s support with Latinos is lower than what the polls were saying about Hillary Clinton before the election. Eventually, what these current 2020 polls suggest is that Latino support is more in line with the last few election cycles.Exit polling from 2016 showed Clinton with 66 percent of support to Trump’s 28 percent. In 2012, Barack Obama gained 71 percent of the Latino vote to Mitt Romney’s 27 percent. In 2008, Obama won 67% of the Latino vote to John McCain’s 31%.

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Editor’s Note: Mattt Barreto is a co-founder of Latino Decisions and was hired by the Biden campaign “to direct polling and focus group research for Latino voters,” as noted by his website. He has gone on record with Latino Rebels to say that he is not working on or involved with any other Latino Decisions work during his time with the Biden campaign.