People wait in line to vote at a polling place on the first day of early voting on October 22, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Loren Elliott/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, D.C. — One week before voters head to the polls for the 2018 midterm elections, the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund and Latino Decisions released the results of the ninth wave of its 10-week national tracking poll of Latino registered voters.
Results from the ninth week of the NALEO Educational Fund/Latino Decisions National Weekly Political Tracking Poll offer exclusive insights into the Latino electorate this year, including early voting rates, political activity participation, campaign and party outreach, and more.
Each week a fresh sample of 250 registered voters is added and combined with the previous 250 interviews to create a rolling average, consistent with most tracking polls methodology. This week’s poll of Latino registered voters nationwide was conducted by Latino Decisions from October 17–29, 2018 (with a margin of error of 4.4 percent).
“The Latino electorate is poised to make history this year, with NALEO Educational Fund analysis projecting that more than 7.8 million Latino voters will cast ballots in Election 2018,” stated Arturo Vargas, NALEO Educational Fund chief executive officer. “As we near Election Day, we know that any advancement we make as candidates and voters this year will be despite the dismal outreach efforts we are seeing from our nation’s political parties. Latino voters are not sitting idly by as we are ignored in yet another election year, choosing instead to take our future in our own hands by mobilizing those around us to register and vote in Election 2018.”
Key findings include:
- Latinos are already making their voices heard in Election 2018. More than one in seven (15 percent) Latinos have voted early nationwide, including 18 percent of Latino voters in California and Florida. Survey results also show that 14 percent of Latino registered voters in Texas have already cast ballots in the upcoming elections.
- In the absence of significant outreach from campaigns and candidates, Latinos are self-mobilizing this election. With less than half of Latino voters contacted this election (48 percent), the Latino community has been self-mobilizing for Election 2018. More than 65 percent of Latino voters surveyed stated that they had encouraged a family member or friend to register or vote in next week’s elections.
- Early voting rates are much higher for those Latinos who have been contacted this year. Outreach does make a difference. Latino voters who reported being contacted by a campaign or candidate were nearly twice as likely to state they had voted early compared to their non-contacted counterparts (20 percent versus 11 percent).
- Older Latinos and Republicans are more likely to vote early. Compared to the national average, Latinos are over the age of 50 (21 percent) and registered as Republican (21 percent) were the most likely to indicate they had voted early. Early voting participation rates were lowest among Latinos who are foreign-born (12 percent), between the ages of 30-49 (12 percent) and registered as Independent (10 percent).
- Latino voters are attending rallies and protests, in addition to donating to candidates and campaigns in Election 2018. We are seeing Latino voters engaged in an array of political actions this year. More than one in five Latino voters (22 percent) have attended a rally or campaign event in support of a candidate, with another 17 percent reporting they had attended a protest or demonstration against a candidate or issue. Other activities include donating money to a campaign or candidate (16 percent) or volunteering to help a candidate or voter outreach drive. More than one-third (35 percent) of Latino voters have participated in at least one of these activities.
As we near Election 2018, NALEO Educational Fund will continue its efforts to ensure that Latino voters have the information necessary to make their voices heard at the ballot box. These efforts include operating our toll-free bilingual hotline 1-888-VE-Y-VOTA (1-888-839-8682) that provides Latino voters with information on every aspect of the electoral process, from registering to vote, to voter ID requirements, to finding their polling place. On Election Day, the hotline will be connected to the Election Protection efforts and 1-866-OUR-VOTE, offering Latino voters nationwide a bilingual resource to get assistance and report any problems they may experience at the polls.
To view the methodology and full toplines for week nine of the 10-week tracking poll, see below:
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About NALEO Educational Fund
NALEO Educational Fund is the nation’s leading non-partisan, non-profit organization that facilitates the full participation of Latinos in the American political process, from citizenship to public service.
About Latino Decisions
Latino Decisions is the nation’s leading polling and research firm on Latino Americans, being called the “gold-standard in Latino American polling” by Time Magazine, and has implemented its weekly political tracking poll of Latino voters every cycle since 2010.
